Amanda Barnes takes a look at climate change and how it will affect the wine industry in Argentina.
It seems each year in Mendoza there is less snow in the mountains and more in the city than usual. Last year the change in weather caused a financial drought for ski companies as local resorts such as Penitentes didn't even open for the season due to a lack of the white stuff. The city however was powder white in July...
Most people don't really deny global warming anymore, but there is often a misrepresentation of what it will mean in the future. Sadly it doesn't mean we will all enjoy sunny year-round summers, but rather that we might get summer temperatures in winter and a big freeze come summertime: forget Global Warming, welcome to the era of Global Weirding.
Climate change experts predict just this: the weather will get weirder. Hot places will get hotter, wet ones wetter and extraordinarystorms will become the ordinary. You can already see evidence across the globe: take a look at the usually, boringly predictable mild British weather and yet this year the UK had its coldest winter in 300 years, followed by its hottest spring in 100 years (but summer month June was colder than early spring March).
China has seen months of severe drought followed by a torrential downpour that devastated thousands of homes. Last November the Amazon experienced its worst drought and lowest water levels in history, while Australia had its wettest spring on record. 2010 was Europe's hottest Summer to date with 50,000 heat-related deaths and giant wildfires, while winter in the eastern US was dubbed 'snowmageddon' due to one of their heaviest snow falls ever recorded.
Fluctuations are however normal: the world has always moved from hotter to cooler periods – usually attributed to the planet's egg shaped orbit around the world. But what climate change scientists are banging on about (and some oil barons are still denying) is how human's emission of carbon and thickening greenhouse gases are trapping more heat in the effective 'blanket' the greenhouse effect creates, thus heating up the planet to what could result in dangerous consequences.
Great hail balls on fire! The effect in Mendoza and its wine industry
As mentioned above, one of the most evident changes here in Mendoza at this time of year is the lack of snow in the mountains over the last few decades and the increase of snow in the city – a slightly useless reversal of usual conditions which delights school boys but infuriates skiers, ski companies and grit layers.
An independent research committee called Punko (connected to the environmental rights NGO for Mendoza, Oikos www.oikosredambiental.org) worked on a project in 2010 to study just this: the trend for increased precipitation (and hence snow) in the plains and a decrease in the Andes mountain range, which is attributed to global warming.
Although a bit of extra rain would appear not to harm anyone (especially in a desert like Mendoza), it can cause freak weather conditions which can be disastrous for vineyards. "Knowing that hail is a big risk for crops here in Mendoza we wanted to use the project to create a climate reconstruction over the last 100 years to see if there was a tendency for an increase in hail storms in the grape growing plains," Andrea Davis, one of the environmental scientists on the project. "There is a tendency over the last 100 years for increased precipitation and hail, which is a growing risk for vineyards."
Their study included the environmental history of the past 100 years looking at rainfall and hail storm frequency. It shows an average increase of 13mm of rain a month in 1900 to 24mm in 2010, an increase of almost 85%. Hail starts from a frequency of less than 1 day to more than 3 days, an increase of 200% with more hail storms in the last decade than ever before recorded.
Hail storms are devastating for vineyards – completely wiping out the crop for the year and ruining the next couple of years' crop.
The only real option for avoiding hail damage is large, expensive protection nets, and spreading your vineyards across different areas as hail storms are incredibly localised. There have also been 'cloud seeding' initiatives to drop dry ice above clouds or 'shoot' the clouds from aeroplanes to induce rain/hail before reaching the vineyards. This practise, although sounding very hillbilly, is practised in other crop growing countries too, but many remain sceptical about its effectiveness to say the least.
But it isn't just hail that Global Weirding is affecting – water shortages and ironically more rain will be a consequence too. Most of the region's water comes from the mountains, from snow melt forming rivers. As there is less snow, there is less snow melt and thus less water: a vital change for an arid desert like Mendoza.
However with the 'more rain in the plain' theory there will be an increase of rainfall (although controlled irrigation is preferable). This precipitation increase is actually more worrying for crop growers than the water shortage. Mendoza's great advantage is its relative disease and rot free dry conditions. But with added water and thus humidity, the zone will become less attractive for grape growing and infinitely more attractive and cosy for diseases and rot. Not a good thing for wine.
The INV (Instituto Nacional de Vitivinicultura) have recently started a study into climate change and how it will affect the wine industry. On 7th July, Carla Aruani led a conference with their preliminary results on climate change over the past 25 years (in Mendoza and San Juan) which showed that the average temperature has significantly increased, bringing harvest times forward and increasing the amount of sugar in the grapes.
This will effect wine production, with Argentine wine perhaps becoming even higher in alcohol. Time will tell which varietals can adapt to the climate change, and which cannot. And to no surprise (and probably great relief to many growers), it is Malbec that they predict will best adapt to the changes.
The future of wine
Climate change is surely going to present some problems for wine makers: changing conditions mean expensive changes in methods and technique. The challenge for the wine maker is to learn to adapt and plan for the inevitable future. Wine making has always been a risky business, and with Global Weirding it will no doubt get riskier.
Perhaps one of the most noticeable proofs of climate change in the wine world is in the shifts of climate conditions between the relatively (to Argentina) small countries in Europe. France is losing some of the climate conditions that made it famous, and in fact the 'champagne' microclimate seems to be winging its way northwards. Who would have thought that England would be the next big sparkling wine producer?
So what will an essential tool for winemakers of the future be? Probably a personal climate change weather man. That, and a cloud shooter.
